PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal may see its daily vessel movements reduced to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new overseer. Ilya Espino de Marotta, who assumed her role on Sept. 7, highlighted the possibility amid El Niño’s influence on reservoir levels. The canal depends on freshwater supplied by rainfall-fed lakes to operate its lock systems. Following below-average rainfall across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions.
Starting from Sept. 3, the canal offered nine daily slots for Neopanamax ships and 25 for Panamax vessels, totaling 34 slots. By Sept. 15, Panamax availability will decrease to 23 slots, reducing the overall daily capacity to 32. These adjustments are driven by diminished rainfall during Panama’s rainy season and lower inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, officials have implemented measures such as tighter booking controls and water-saving practices, while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day until June 30, based on official operational data. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures predate the recent rainfall decline, which has led to stricter operational limits. The canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and facilitates key trade routes for containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo types.
Water scarcity prompts transit restrictions
The lock systems depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to raise and lower ships during transit. Consequently, reservoir levels directly influence how many vessels can pass through, especially during extended dry spells. In 2023, the severe drought caused daily transits to drop to 22 in December as Gatun Lake levels fell to unusually low levels. Transit capacity later recovered following rainfall and conservation efforts that helped stabilize water availability for canal operations and public water supply.
In addition, vessel draft limits have been adjusted as part of the water management strategy. On Sept. 4, authorities postponed a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. After evaluating Gatun Lake levels and recent weather forecasts, the 48-foot limit remains in effect. Draft limits regulate the maximum depth at which vessels can sit in the water, which is crucial for heavier cargo loads.
Changes in booking procedures amid capacity constraints
With capacity tightening, the canal also revised its booking and auction processes. Auction slots are now organized by cargo category, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When conditions are equal, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. The authorities have encouraged vessels without reservations to make use of the booking system, as limited capacity can lead to longer wait times. A confirmed booking remains the only way to secure a transit date.
A further reduction to 29 ships daily has not been ordered but remains a potential measure for February or March if drought conditions do not improve. Canal officials continue to monitor rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing any additional operational adjustments. Furthermore, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to enhance long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s strategy to ensure sufficient water supplies for the canal and more than half of the country’s population.