ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan represents approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measurement utilizes the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This growth positioned Pakistan as the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together comprise another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations account for roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for around 14% of the global extreme poverty population, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only World Bank region where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to increase.
At the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan also experienced worsening conditions. The proportion of people below that threshold rose by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate was approximately 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty levels intensify amid successive shocks
These recent findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added around 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated extreme poverty count. In September 2026, the World Bank highlighted that MENAAP remains one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators stay high. The October regional update estimates Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and projects a slight increase to 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. It also forecasts real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, after a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences key poverty figures
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current MENAAP classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, the World Bank’s regional statistics categorized both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government has stated that this adjustment was purely administrative and statistical, and did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income level classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping shifted regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also projected a weaker regional economy for 2026. It forecasts a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output following a growth of 3.3% in 2025, due to conflict and disruptions impacting energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain comparatively resilient within the regional outlook. The update predicts a 4.3% growth rate for these economies in 2026, although rising food and energy costs continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across multiple countries.